What Y. S. Jagan’s Victory can mean for Andhra Pradesh Politics and Congress’s Road Ahead

The by-election results in Kadapa and Pulivendula in Andhra Pradesh where J.S.Jagan and YS.Vijayamma of YSR congress party, the son and widows of YSR won came as shock for both the ruling Congress and opposition TDP parties. Now the question is why they lost and what do they think about this results?. But each of giving different reasons for setback. Chandra Babu Naidu of Telugu Desam party said, “Money and muscle power played a big roles in the election campaign at Kadapa and democracy became fool in the hands of these two YSR Congress and Congress parties” while Congress expressed the opinion that YSR’s sentiment, money power were the reasons for this victory for YSR Congress.

These elections are not only about money power; there is a more depth meaning to it; Jagan felt he is an automatic successor and choice for the CM post when YSR was dead, which Congress high command denied. It’s strange that Rajiv Gandhi’s widow Sonia did this to Jagan when her own husband Rajiv was made the PM when Indira was assassinated where Rajiv was not even in Politics, straight sway deployed on the job from the PILOT’s position and Sonia today thinks Jagan need to prove in politics before getting to CM post. This difference is not taken well by Jagan and his fans and were able to make the ppl believe that YSR Family is out done and is being harassed. The fact that YS. Vivekanda Reddy, brother of YSR remains with Congress and fought against her own brother’s wife increased the feeling that Congress and Sonia is the root cause for the split in the Family. Congress made Jagan a state figure by stopping his yathra. They made him a national figure by sending all the ministers and CM taking interest before surrendering to him. It is a congress’ mistake and it should and will bear the brunt of it.

Quite a few interesting and important developments now taking place and now it had a hard time asserting the realistic estimates and conclusions from the lessons of the by-election, it seems that Congress faces a dilemma either to strengthen the hands of leadership or to pursue more policies of YSR in order to asserting himself. Congress couldn’t Convince the people that whatever policies adopted by YSR are in the capacity of a Congress CM, but not his personal policies. People thought there were YSR’s policies, not Congress policies.

Congress has few problems in hand in Andhra Pradesh.

Congress is losing the YSR Legacy: By defacto, Jagan is YSR son. Congress also fought elections with YSR photo in their banner. At one hand YSR son contested and at other late YSR’s party member, who called themselves as the rightful heir of late YSR. YSR’s image is evenly shared but the result is to whom People trusted and voted. Thats the clear difference. Late YSR blood brother also got defeated as people think simply he joined hands with leaders who are ready to spoil all kinds of schemes late YSR introduced.

 Separate Telangana State agitation: One thing Congress and Chandra babu Naidu assuming that the Seemandhra ppl r against a separate Telangana state and if they openly supports Telangana, they may lose their base in Seemandhra, but most ppl even in Seemandhra want this uneasiness to go and both regions move ahead. Only way that can happen is solve the Telangana issue forever. Now that we reached a stage both regions divided over the party lines, ppl lines, its only sensible that a separate Telangana is formed with an amicable solution to both regions. If Hyderabad is the only contagious issue, we can have a mid-level formula where hyd can be common capital for 10-15 years, have a new capital developed in the other region and move the capital to that city slowly, however other issues like water, jobs need to be solved amicably. KCR and Telanganites sld give assurance that andhrites who settled here sldnt have any issue and the investments sld continue. this is the best possible solution for all the regions and if JS Jagan can come out with a such formula that he is OK with which is ok for all regions, he will become the most intelligent and sensible leader. This is where Congress and CBN are being accused of playing with the sentiments; instead of coming out with a formula, both parties r trying to play wait and watch game which may backtrack for both of them if Jagan takes one route to solve this issue even if he & his party may loose somethign in the short term;


Many people believe that by 2014 elections, the Congress party may be reduced to the level of a regional party in Andhra Pradesh, as is being witnessed in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka and Bihar; JS Jagan may eat away the Congress votes in Seemandhra region and KCR and TRS can take away the Congress base in Telangana even after they announce the separate Telangana State if Congress intend to do so.

Thus, the next few months are expected to witness important political changes especially in the Congress Party. Scene can change more rapidly for 2014 Elections where it could be J.S Jagan VS TDP in Seemandhra and TRS VS Anti-TRS forces who don’t like KCR in Telangana could again led by again by YS Jagan.  Its interesting how Congress handles this situation in a state where 30+ Congress MPs were elected and was critical for UPA II’s success and even more critical for UPA III if it want to come back to power again.